Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
The last significant rain was 17mm on May 3rd, followed by three full dry days (May 4–6) with moderate temperatures and reasonable winds, giving a plausible but not fully confident drying window. Today is dry through the afternoon with dropping humidity, but light rain arrived on May 1–2 before the heavy May 3rd event, meaning the rock was already saturated going into that downpour — and the forecast shows more rain arriving tomorrow, so any climbing window is narrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position and S/W aspect mean it benefits significantly from wind-driven drying, which partially compensates for the high altitude and recent heavy rain.
- The boulders and buttresses here are relatively small features that dry faster than large continuous cliff faces, though seepage at the base of blocks can linger after heavy rain.
- The friction-dependent, almost granite-like rock texture at Earl Crag makes it especially important that conditions are fully dry — any residual moisture drastically reduces the high-friction climbing style this venue demands.
- The moorland ground around the boulders can be boggy and slow to drain; if the peat and grass at the base of the rocks is still damp, treat this as a strong indicator the rock retains internal moisture.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb if any moisture is visible on the rock or if the base ground is damp — the friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's problems makes even slight dampness both dangerous and damaging.
- Rain is forecast from late evening today and through much of the coming week; conditions will deteriorate again from tomorrow.
Reasoning
Heavy rain (17mm) fell on May 3rd on top of already-wet rock from May 1–2 (3.5mm combined), but three consecutive dry days (May 4–6) with temperatures around 9–13°C and moderate winds have allowed meaningful surface and partial internal drying.
The S/W aspect and exposed hilltop position significantly aid drying; three dry days after heavy rain in spring conditions with average humidity around 77% is borderline — guidelines suggest 48–72+ hours for >10mm rain, and we are at approximately 72–84 hours of drying by this afternoon.
The 17mm event on a pre-wetted rock mass means deep saturation was likely; while three days of drying reduces surface risk, internal moisture could still compromise hold integrity on this friction-dependent venue.
Early May temperatures are helpful (8–13°C range) but not warm enough for rapid deep drying, and the consistently elevated humidity (78% weekly average) slows evaporation considerably.
Contributing Factors
7
17mm of rain on already-damp rock from preceding days caused deep saturation of the gritstone.
May 4–6 were completely dry, providing approximately 72+ hours of drying time before today's trace moisture.
The hilltop exposure and south/south-west facing rock receives above-average solar radiation and wind, significantly accelerating drying.
Average humidity of 78% over the past week limits the rate of evaporation from porous rock.
2.9mm forecast for May 8th means any drying progress will be reversed, and the coming week shows persistent light rain.
Temperatures of 9–13°C are adequate but not warm enough for rapid deep drying of saturated gritstone.
Today is forecast dry through to around 22:00 with humidity dropping to 52–55% in the afternoon, creating a potential climbing window.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, go in the early-to-mid afternoon (12:00–18:00) when humidity is lowest (52–55%) and carefully inspect the rock and ground conditions before climbing.
- Check the moorland ground at the base of the boulders — if the peat or grass is still soggy, the rock is very likely still holding internal moisture and should not be climbed.
- Given the unsettled forecast for the coming week, this narrow afternoon window today may be the best opportunity, but only if on-site assessment confirms dry conditions.
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
2 days ago
Three dry days since the heavy 17mm rain on May 3rd, with moderate winds and the exposed S/W aspect aiding drying, but cool temperatures and elevated humidity have slowed the process. The rock is likely approaching climbable condition on surface-exposed faces, but internal moisture may persist — a visual and tactile check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means the base of boulders can sit in saturated peat and heather, wicking moisture back into the rock long after rain has stopped.
- The unusually hard, granite-like gritstone here is denser than typical grit, which may slow both absorption and drying — internal moisture can linger even when the surface feels dry.
- South and west faces will have benefited most from the three dry days with easterly winds and some sun, but north-facing sides of boulders and lower sheltered problems will be significantly damper.
- At 350m on open moorland, overnight temperatures have dropped near or below freezing recently (−0.3°C on Apr 20, −1.2°C on Apr 24), and the 17mm soaking on May 3rd means some freeze-thaw risk existed in the days immediately following.
Warnings
2
- Rain is forecast from May 7th onwards through May 11th, which will re-saturate the rock and reset drying progress.
- The repeated wet-dry cycling this spring may have caused cumulative structural weakening — be especially cautious on fragile-looking holds and flakes.
Reasoning
The 17mm deluge on May 3rd thoroughly saturated the rock, and prior weeks saw repeated wettings (20.5mm in the last 7 days, 61.5mm over 28 days), meaning baseline moisture levels were already elevated before the latest heavy event.
Three full dry days (May 4–6) with moderate easterly winds (12–17 km/h) and the exposed S/W aspect have provided reasonable surface drying, but average temperatures of only ~9°C and humidity around 77% mean drying has been slower than ideal — likely borderline for a 17mm soaking on porous gritstone.
Given that 80% of compressive strength loss occurs within hours of wetting and the rock was fully saturated just 3 days ago, internal moisture almost certainly persists in thicker blocks and lower sections, posing hold breakage risk on steeper or more textured problems.
Early May conditions are improving but still cool at 350m altitude; overnight lows near 2–3°C limit nocturnal drying, and the spring pattern of frequent frontal rain has kept the rock in a repeatedly wetted state for weeks.
Contributing Factors
7
17mm fell on May 3rd on top of an already wet April (61.5mm over 28 days), deeply saturating the porous gritstone.
May 4–6 have been dry, providing a window for surface and partial internal drying on exposed faces.
The hilltop exposure and south/west orientation maximise wind and solar drying, which is the strongest factor in Earl Crag's favour today.
Average temps around 9°C over the last week mean evaporative drying is significantly slower than it would be in summer warmth.
Average humidity of 77% over the past week reduces the vapour-pressure gradient needed for efficient drying.
The rock has been repeatedly soaked through April and into May, meaning deep pore saturation is likely higher than a single rain event would cause.
Humidity drops to ~50% through midday with moderate wind and partial sun, offering the best drying window of the past three days.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, test conditions by checking the ground at the base of boulders — if peat or soil is visibly wet, the rock is almost certainly still damp internally.
- Prioritise south- and west-facing overhanging problems on smaller, more exposed boulders where drying will be most advanced; avoid slabs and north-facing walls.
- Consider waiting until after the current dry spell extends further — rain returns tomorrow (May 7th), so today may be the only viable window before another reset.
Do Not Climb
70%
3 days ago
Heavy rain on May 3rd (17mm) followed by only one full dry day and light showers today means the gritstone is almost certainly still damp internally. Despite a promising dry spell forecast from tomorrow, insufficient drying time has elapsed since the last significant rainfall for confident climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed hilltop position between Wainman's Pinnacle and Lund's Tower gives excellent wind exposure which aids drying, but the easterly winds forecast over the coming days will not directly hit the S/W facing rock surfaces as effectively as westerlies or southerlies would.
- The unusually hard, granite-like texture of Earl Crag's gritstone may shed surface moisture slightly faster than typical softer grit, but the underlying porosity and internal moisture retention remain the same concern.
- The moorland setting at 350m means the ground around the boulders will retain moisture from recent rain, and boggy moorland conditions can contribute to elevated local humidity that slows rock drying.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses dry unevenly — south-facing aspects will dry faster, but sheltered north sides and lower sections of blocks will hold moisture significantly longer after the recent wet spell.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on internally damp gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — the surface may look dry while the interior remains saturated.
- Overnight frost forecast for May 6th (-0.8°C) could cause freeze-thaw damage to still-wet rock; do not assume a frosty morning means the rock is dry.
Reasoning
17mm fell on May 3rd with a further 2.6mm on May 2nd and 0.9mm on May 1st, totalling over 20mm in three days; only one dry day (May 4th) has passed, and today has seen light precipitation — the rock is very likely still wet internally.
Despite the exposed position and moderate winds, only ~30 hours of drying have occurred since heavy rain, with high humidity (84% average on May 4th) and overcast skies limiting evaporation; this is far short of the 48–72+ hours needed after heavy rain.
With recent saturation from 17mm on May 3rd and inadequate drying time, internal moisture levels are likely still high enough to cause significant strength reduction and risk of hold breakage on this porous gritstone.
Spring conditions in early May at 350m mean temperatures are modest (averaging ~10°C) and overnight lows are near or below freezing, further slowing drying; the sub-zero minimum forecast for May 6th (-0.8°C) introduces mild freeze-thaw concern if internal moisture persists.
Contributing Factors
8
17mm fell on May 3rd with additional rain on May 1st and 2nd totalling over 20mm in three days, saturating the porous gritstone.
Only approximately 30 hours of dry weather since the heavy rain, well short of the 48–72+ hours minimum required for gritstone after heavy rain.
Today's forecast includes 0.7mm of scattered light precipitation through the afternoon and evening, resetting any drying progress.
Humidity has averaged 77% over the past week and reached 94% on May 3rd, severely limiting evaporative drying.
The exposed moorland location receives good wind which aids surface drying, though it cannot overcome the short drying window.
South and west facing aspects benefit from good spring sunshine when skies clear, helping surface evaporation.
A sustained dry spell of at least 5 days is forecast from May 6th onwards, which will progressively improve conditions.
Overnight lows near or below 0°C (forecast -0.8°C on May 6th) combined with residual internal moisture create a mild freeze-thaw risk.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — wait for the forecast dry spell to take effect; aim for May 8th at the earliest when 48+ hours of dry weather will have passed since the last precipitation.
- Check the ground at the base of the boulders on arrival — if the moorland turf is soggy or there is visible dampness on shaded rock faces, the rock is still too wet.
- Focus on south-facing, well-exposed boulder faces first when returning, as these will dry quickest; avoid north-facing or sheltered problems until several dry days have passed.
Do Not Climb
90%
4 days ago
Earl Crag received 17mm of heavy rain yesterday (May 3rd) in near-saturated conditions (94% humidity, 100% cloud cover), with a further 0.5mm of drizzle overnight into today. The rock will be thoroughly saturated and cannot have dried sufficiently in less than 24 hours, even with the modest improvement in conditions forecast for this afternoon.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means the boulders sit on peat and heather which retain moisture extensively, keeping the base environment damp and prolonging rock saturation.
- The distinctive hard, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag's gritstone may give a false impression of impermeability, but it remains porous Millstone Grit that absorbs water readily.
- Being a bouldering venue with lower-profile blocks, many problems start from ground level where moisture wicks up from sodden moorland — the base sections will be the last to dry.
- The exposed hilltop position is normally an advantage for drying, but today's winds are light (under 14 km/h) and from the NW/NE, offering limited benefit to the S/W-facing aspects.
Warnings
3
- Climbing on saturated Millstone Grit risks permanent hold breakage and route damage — the rock may have lost 30%+ of its compressive strength.
- The friction-dependent style of Earl Crag's problems makes wet conditions doubly dangerous: reduced rock strength AND drastically reduced friction.
- Yesterday's 17mm of rain on already-moist rock from a prolonged wet period means internal saturation is high even where surfaces may start to appear dry this afternoon.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly saturated internally after 17mm of rain yesterday fell over many hours in near-100% humidity, compounded by 0.5mm of drizzle overnight — the porous gritstone will have absorbed water deeply.
Less than 24 hours have elapsed since the heavy rain ended, with overnight humidity at 96–98% and light winds providing negligible drying; even the afternoon improvement to ~64% humidity and moderate wind is far too brief to dry saturated Millstone Grit.
At near-full saturation the gritstone could be suffering 30%+ compressive strength loss, making hold breakage and grain loosening a serious risk — climbing today would risk permanent route damage.
Spring conditions in late April/early May at 350m altitude mean cool temperatures (averaging ~9.5°C over the past week) which slow evaporation significantly; the wet fortnight preceding this event has kept background moisture levels high.
Contributing Factors
8
17mm of rain fell on May 3rd over many hours in near-saturated atmospheric conditions, deeply wetting the porous gritstone.
An additional 0.5mm fell in the early hours of today, resetting any marginal surface drying that might have begun.
Less than 24 hours since heavy rain with only a few afternoon hours of moderate drying conditions — far short of the 48–72+ hours required after heavy rain on porous rock.
62mm of rain in the last 28 days means background moisture levels in the rock are elevated, requiring even longer drying than usual.
Average humidity over the past 7 days is 77%, and overnight values reached 96–98%, severely limiting evaporative drying.
From midday today humidity drops to ~64% with light winds and temperatures reaching 12.9°C, beginning some surface drying — but this is far too brief to dry saturated rock.
Normally the exposed setting aids drying significantly, but today's winds are unusually light (under 14 km/h) and from NW/NE rather than across the S/W faces.
At 350m with temps around 9–13°C, evaporation rates are modest compared to lowland or summer conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today — the rock is saturated from yesterday's heavy rain and needs at least 48–72 hours of dry weather to become safe.
- Monitor the extended dry spell forecast from May 6th onwards; conditions should improve significantly by May 7th or 8th.
- When you do visit, check the moorland ground at the base of the boulders — if it's still squelchy, the rock is definitely still holding moisture internally.
Do Not Climb
95%
4 days ago
Earl Crag received 19.6mm of heavy rain today with 95% humidity, making the rock thoroughly saturated and completely unsuitable for climbing. The preceding week was also wet (24.8mm in 7 days), meaning the rock had little chance to dry out before today's soaking.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's boulders and buttresses sit on an exposed moorland hilltop, which aids wind-drying but also means the rock receives the full brunt of today's heavy rain with no shelter.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but it is still a porous sandstone that suffers significant strength loss when wet.
- The S/W aspect will receive limited solar benefit with the current NE wind direction, reducing the effectiveness of the exposed position for drying over the next 1-2 days.
- Moorland settings retain ground moisture — the peat and heather surrounding the boulders will keep local humidity elevated even as skies clear, slowing the drying process.
Warnings
2
- 19.6mm of rain today means the gritstone is at near-full saturation — climbing now risks irreversible hold breakage and permanent route damage.
- The surface may appear dry before the interior has dried — do not trust surface appearance alone given the volume of recent rain.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly saturated from 19.6mm of rain today at 95% humidity, compounded by 24.8mm over the past week including 2.6mm yesterday and 0.9mm the day before — the gritstone will be at or near full saturation.
Drying has not yet begun since rain fell today; the NE wind direction means the S/W-facing rock will be somewhat sheltered from the prevailing breeze, and tomorrow's 84% humidity will slow initial evaporation significantly.
With the rock at near-full saturation, compressive strength is reduced by an estimated 30-50%, making hold breakage a serious risk — especially on Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems where foot placements rely on surface integrity.
Spring conditions in late April/early May at 350m altitude mean moderate temperatures (~10°C) that support slow-to-moderate drying, but the recent pattern of repeated wetting events has kept the rock in a persistently damp state.
Contributing Factors
6
19.6mm of rain today at 95% humidity has thoroughly saturated the gritstone, with no drying time elapsed.
24.8mm over the past 7 days and 68.4mm over 28 days means the rock has been repeatedly wetted with insufficient drying windows between events.
Today's 95% humidity means essentially zero net evaporation is occurring, prolonging the saturated state.
The exposed moorland setting will aid drying once humidity drops, though the NE wind is not optimally directed at the S/W-facing rock.
Temperatures around 9-12°C are adequate but not strong for evaporative drying, especially at 350m altitude.
Six consecutive dry days are forecast from tomorrow, which will progressively improve conditions over the coming days.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today — the rock is fully saturated from heavy rain and climbing would risk permanent damage to holds and routes.
- Wait at least 48-72 hours of dry weather before considering a visit; Tuesday 5th May at the earliest, with Wednesday 6th more conservative.
- When you do visit, check the ground at the base of the boulders — if the peat and soil are still visibly wet, the rock likely retains internal moisture.
Do Not Climb
95%
4 days ago
Earl Crag received 15.5mm of heavy rain today with 92% humidity, making conditions clearly unsuitable for climbing. The rock will be thoroughly saturated and needs a minimum of 48–72 hours of dry weather before conditions could begin to improve.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means today's heavy rain (15.5mm) will have driven directly into the S/W-facing rock with little shelter, ensuring thorough saturation.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone here may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but it is still porous sandstone and the same wet-rock ethics apply — internal moisture can persist long after the surface appears dry.
- The collection of scattered boulders and buttresses means all faces are exposed to rain from multiple directions, with no large overhanging features to create sheltered dry zones.
- At 350m altitude on open moorland, cloud and mist can persist and maintain high humidity even on nominally dry days, slowing drying considerably compared to lowland venues.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage and route damage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable.
- The surface may appear dry before the interior has dried — do not be deceived by a dry-looking surface after only one day of good weather.
Reasoning
Today's 15.5mm of rain at 92% humidity has thoroughly saturated the gritstone, following 2.6mm yesterday and 0.9mm the day before — the rock is fully wet internally and externally.
With zero consecutive dry days, high humidity (92%), and light winds (13.7 km/h from NE — not hitting the S/W faces effectively), no meaningful drying has occurred or will occur today.
The rock is at or near full saturation, meaning compressive strength is reduced by an estimated 30%+ and holds are at significant risk of breakage under climbing loads.
Spring conditions in late April/early May at 350m altitude mean moderate temperatures but the recent pattern has been persistently unsettled with 64.3mm over the last 28 days, keeping background moisture levels elevated.
Contributing Factors
6
15.5mm of rain today is a substantial soaking event that will fully saturate the gritstone.
At 92% humidity there is almost no evaporative drying potential today.
20.7mm in the last 7 days and 64.3mm over 28 days means the rock has had little chance to fully dry out at depth.
Today's NE wind at 13.7 km/h does not directly ventilate the S/W-facing rock faces, reducing drying efficiency.
The exposed moorland setting means rain hits the rock directly from all angles with no shelter.
Temperatures around 10°C are adequate for drying but not warm enough to drive rapid evaporation from saturated rock.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is thoroughly saturated and structurally compromised.
- Allow a minimum of 48–72 hours of dry weather from tomorrow before considering a visit; check the forecast for 6th or 7th May as the earliest realistic window.
- On arrival after the drying period, check the base of boulders and north-facing sides for dampness — if the ground at the crag base is moist, the rock is still wet internally.
Do Not Climb
92%
4 days ago
Earl Crag received 10.8mm of heavy rain today with 92% humidity and light winds — the rock is currently saturated and completely unsuitable for climbing. This follows a wet period with 16mm in the last 7 days, meaning the gritstone has had no opportunity to dry out internally.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means it receives the full force of weather systems, and today's 10.8mm rain will have thoroughly soaked all faces despite the normally beneficial wind exposure.
- The boulders and buttresses here are relatively small features with high surface-area-to-volume ratios, which aids drying once conditions improve, but also means they absorb rain rapidly from all angles.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like rock at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but it remains a porous sandstone that weakens significantly when wet — the friction-dependent nature of the climbing here makes damp conditions doubly dangerous.
- The S/W aspect will help with drying once the rain stops, but the easterly winds forecast for tomorrow will not directly aid evaporation on south and west-facing surfaces.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks catastrophic hold breakage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially dangerous when damp.
- The rock surface may appear dry before the interior has dried — do not be deceived by a surface that looks climbable after only one dry day.
Reasoning
The rock is fully saturated today following 10.8mm of heavy rain at 92% humidity, on top of 2.6mm yesterday and 0.9mm the day before — the gritstone will be wet through to the core.
With today's NE wind at only 13.7 km/h and 92% humidity, there has been zero meaningful drying today; the S/W aspect receives no benefit from the easterly winds forecast tomorrow, and at least 48–72 hours of dry weather will be needed.
Climbing now would risk significant hold breakage given the estimated 30%+ strength reduction in saturated gritstone, and the friction-dependent style of Earl Crag problems makes falls on greasy holds very likely.
Spring conditions at 350m remain cool and damp; while freeze-thaw risk is diminishing, the recent pattern of frequent rain events has kept the rock chronically moist through April.
Contributing Factors
6
10.8mm of rain today has fully saturated the gritstone, requiring a minimum 48–72 hours of dry weather before climbing is appropriate.
Humidity at 92% today means essentially no evaporative drying is occurring.
16mm in the last 7 days and 59.6mm over 28 days means the rock has been repeatedly re-wetted with little chance to dry internally.
Today's NE wind at only 13.7 km/h does not aid drying on the S/W-facing rock and is too light to drive significant evaporation.
While the exposed position normally aids drying, today it simply means the crag received the full rainfall with no shelter.
The south and west-facing aspect will help once the rain stops and sun returns, but offers no benefit in current overcast, saturated conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is saturated and structurally weakened; any climbing risks permanent damage to holds and routes.
- Wait for at least 48 hours of dry weather with wind and low humidity before visiting; realistically May 6th at the earliest.
- Check the ground at the base of the boulders on arrival — if the peat and grass are still sodden, the rock will still be damp internally regardless of surface appearance.
Do Not Climb
70%
5 days ago
Today has seen 1.1mm of rain with high humidity (80%), and the rock cannot be considered dry. Although there was a good dry spell from April 21–26, recent light rain on April 27, May 1, and today has re-wetted the surface, and a very heavy 19mm downpour is forecast for tomorrow, making conditions deteriorating rather than improving.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means the boulders sit on peaty ground that holds moisture — if the peat is damp underfoot, the rock bases will be retaining moisture too.
- The S/W aspect and exposed position are normally excellent for drying, but the recent shift to easterly and northeasterly winds means the crag has been somewhat sheltered from the prevailing drying airflow.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like rock at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical gritstone, but it is still gritstone and must be treated with the same caution regarding wet climbing.
- With 49.3mm over the last 28 days and another 30.4mm forecast in the next 6 days, the cumulative moisture loading through this spring period is significant for a high-altitude moorland crag.
Warnings
2
- 19mm of heavy rain is forecast for tomorrow (May 3) — do not plan to climb this weekend.
- Overnight temperatures have recently dropped below freezing at this altitude; combined with moisture, freeze-thaw damage to holds is a real risk.
Reasoning
Today's 1.1mm of rain on top of 0.9mm yesterday means the rock surface has been freshly wetted, and with 80% humidity at 350m altitude, evaporation will be minimal — the rock is almost certainly damp.
The wind is moderate at 15.8 km/h from the west which would normally help the S/W facing crag dry, but with rain falling today and very high humidity, meaningful drying has not yet begun.
With recent repeated wetting events and overnight temperatures dropping near or below freezing (−1.2°C on April 24, −0.3°C on April 20), there is moderate concern about cumulative freeze-thaw and moisture-related weakening of holds on this high-altitude crag.
Early May at 350m altitude still sees cold nights and slow drying conditions; the crag is transitioning into better season but spring weather remains highly variable as demonstrated by the 19mm forecast for tomorrow.
Contributing Factors
7
1.1mm of precipitation today has re-wetted the rock surface, resetting the drying clock.
At 80% relative humidity, evaporation from the rock surface is significantly impaired, slowing any drying.
15.8 km/h westerly wind on this exposed hilltop provides some drying potential, but cannot overcome active rain and high humidity.
The south and west facing aspects receive good solar radiation which aids drying when conditions allow.
19mm of heavy rain forecast for May 3 will thoroughly saturate the rock, making conditions far worse in the immediate future.
49.3mm over the last 28 days represents significant cumulative moisture loading, meaning the rock's internal moisture content is likely elevated.
At 350m on an exposed moorland hilltop, temperatures are lower than valley readings and drying is correspondingly slower.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock has been freshly wetted and conditions are not suitable for gritstone.
- Avoid the crag for the next several days given the 19mm deluge forecast for tomorrow and further rain on May 5 and 6.
- The earliest realistic window may be May 8 onwards, but only if the forecast holds dry — check conditions again after May 7 and inspect the moorland ground for dampness on arrival.
Likely Safe to Climb
82%
6 days ago
Earl Crag has had 4 consecutive dry days following only 1.7mm of rain in the last week, with warm temperatures (up to 19.7°C today), moderate winds, and decreasing humidity — conditions that should have thoroughly dried this exposed, south/west-facing gritstone. The extended dry spell from April 21–26 (6 dry days with temps up to 18°C) would have reset moisture levels well before the light 1.7mm shower on April 27, which has now had 4 full dry days to evaporate.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop position at 350m means it is fully exposed to wind from all directions, which significantly accelerates drying even in moderate conditions.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but standard gritstone drying precautions still apply.
- Being a bouldering venue with relatively low-lying blocks rather than tall buttresses, most rock surfaces are close to ground level where moorland peat and grass can retain moisture — check the base of problems for dampness.
- The south and west aspects receive excellent afternoon sun in spring, and today's southerly wind direction directly assists drying on the main faces.
Warnings
1
- Rain is forecast from May 3rd (7.5mm) — plan sessions for today or tomorrow to take advantage of the current dry window.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 1.7mm on April 27, preceded by a 6-day dry spell; 4 consecutive dry days since then with good temperatures and moderate wind should have fully dried exposed gritstone surfaces and interiors.
South/west aspect receiving strong late-April/early-May sun combined with consistent winds (20–30 km/h from the east) over 4 dry days provides well above the 48-hour minimum drying window needed for the light 1.7mm rainfall.
With 4 dry days, declining humidity (down to 56–65% in recent days), and no freeze-thaw risk at current temperatures (min 3.1–4.5°C recently), structural risk from moisture-weakened holds is minimal.
Early May provides lengthening days with strong solar radiation, and overnight temperatures are now consistently above freezing, eliminating freeze-thaw concerns and supporting reliable drying.
Contributing Factors
7
No rain since April 27 (1.7mm), giving 4 full dry days — well exceeding the 48-hour minimum for light rain on exposed rock.
Today reaches 19.7°C with recent days consistently 14–18°C, providing strong evaporative potential.
Earl Crag's fully exposed moorland position at 350m means consistent wind movement across rock surfaces, significantly accelerating drying.
South and west-facing rock receives excellent afternoon solar radiation in early May, maximising surface and subsurface drying.
Humidity at 70% today is acceptable though not ideal; recent days saw 64–65% which would have driven most of the drying.
50.5mm over 28 days with several wet spells means the broader moorland environment retains moisture, and some sheltered or north-facing surfaces may still hold dampness.
Minimum temperatures are now above freezing (3.8°C tonight) so there is no risk of freeze-thaw damage to the rock.
Recommendations
3
- Conditions look good for climbing today — enjoy the warm, dry weather before rain returns on May 3rd.
- Check the base and lower sections of boulders for any residual moorland dampness before committing to problems, particularly any north-facing or shaded sides.
- Use only soft brushes and minimise chalk — Earl Crag's harder gritstone still deserves the same ethical care as any grit venue.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
9 days ago
The last meaningful rain was 1.7mm on April 27, and before that 0.7mm on April 20, following a very wet mid-April period (12.9mm on Apr 11, 10.0mm on Apr 15). Two full dry days with moderate wind and improving temperatures today (13.7°C, 32.8 km/h easterly, 63% humidity) suggest surface-exposed rock should be approaching climbable condition, but the heavy cumulative rainfall earlier in April (52.9mm over 28 days) and overnight high humidity (89-93%) at this moorland altitude warrant on-site verification.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's boulders and buttresses sit on an exposed moorland hilltop at 350m, which means cloud and mist contact can re-wet rock even without recorded precipitation — the overnight humidity of 89-93% with 100% cloud cover on April 28 may have deposited condensation.
- The S/W aspect is partially sheltered from the prevailing easterly winds of the last few days, potentially reducing the drying benefit of the strong winds — however the south-facing surfaces will have benefited from any direct solar radiation.
- The harder, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag has lower porosity than typical grit, which means water penetrates less deeply but surface moisture and seepage can linger in cracks and horizontal breaks between boulders.
- The moorland setting means the ground around the boulders retains water — if the peat and grass at the base of problems is still sodden, this is a reliable indicator that rock may still hold internal moisture.
Warnings
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- The rock at Earl Crag may appear surface-dry while retaining internal moisture from the very wet April — apply the field test of checking ground dampness before committing to climb.
- Overnight condensation at 350m is a real possibility given recent humidity levels; early-morning rock may be greasy even without recorded rainfall.
Reasoning
The 1.7mm rain on April 27 was light, but it fell on ground already saturated from a very wet April (52.9mm total), and overnight humidity at 88-93% with full cloud cover may have slowed or partially reversed surface drying.
Two dry days with today's strong easterly wind (32.8 km/h) and low humidity (63%) provide good drying conditions, but the S/W aspect does not face directly into the easterly wind, and the preceding five-day dry spell (Apr 21-26) was interrupted by the Apr 27 rain resetting the drying clock.
The cumulative 52.9mm over 28 days means internal moisture levels in the gritstone may still be elevated despite surface drying, posing a risk of grain loosening under load — though the denser texture of Earl Crag's rock offers some protection.
Spring conditions in late April at 350m altitude are improving but still marginal, with overnight frost risk (min -1.2°C on Apr 24, -0.3°C on Apr 20) and the possibility of freeze-thaw damage to any residual internal moisture.
Contributing Factors
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Only 1.7mm fell on April 27, a light amount that should dry relatively quickly on exposed rock.
April 28-29 have been dry, meeting the minimum threshold for light rain drying on exposed gritstone.
Today's 32.8 km/h easterly wind significantly accelerates evaporation from rock surfaces.
52.9mm over 28 days including 12.9mm on Apr 11 and 10.0mm on Apr 15 means deep moisture reserves may persist in the rock.
Humidity reached 89-93% with 100% cloud cover overnight on Apr 28, potentially depositing condensation on the rock surface at 350m.
The prevailing easterly wind does not directly hit the south/west-facing surfaces, somewhat reducing drying efficiency on the main climbing faces.
Today's 13.7°C maximum is adequate for evaporation and represents a warming trend into the forecast period.
At 350m on open moor, cloud contact and persistent dampness in the surrounding peat can prolong moisture retention.
Recommendations
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- Visit in the afternoon when today's strong wind and sunshine have had maximum drying effect, and perform a thorough touch-test on multiple faces before climbing.
- Check the peat and grass at the base of boulders — if the ground is still sodden, the rock likely retains internal moisture and climbing should be avoided.
- Prioritise south-facing, overhanging, and well-exposed problems; avoid low-lying slabs, cracks, and any surfaces showing darker wet patches or seepage.
Climbing Outlook