Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Shepherd's Crag has had a mixed recent spell with light rain on several of the last few days (7.9mm on May 3rd, trace amounts since), but its south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock mean surface drying is relatively quick. A dry morning window today looks feasible, though the rock may carry residual dampness in sheltered spots and rain returns from tomorrow onward.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The Brown Crag area dries noticeably slower than the main south-facing buttresses due to overhanging tree cover reducing direct sun and wind exposure.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after the prolonged wet spell in mid-April (90mm+ over that month); seepage lines may still be active.
- The south/south-west aspect and short approach from the road mean a morning-to-early-afternoon session can exploit the best drying window today before light drizzle arrives around 15:00.
- The forecast shows a deteriorating week ahead with rain on most days and high humidity — today may be the last reasonable window for several days.
Warnings
2
- Rain returns from tomorrow and conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly through the coming week — do not rely on afternoon windows.
- The BVS rock becomes notably slippery when damp despite its rough texture; test friction carefully on easier ground before committing to harder routes.
Reasoning
The last significant rain was 7.9mm on May 3rd, followed by four days of only trace precipitation (0.6mm or less per day); main south-facing surfaces should be largely dry but sheltered or seepage-prone areas may retain dampness.
Three essentially dry days (May 4–6) with moderate winds and the south-facing aspect have provided reasonable drying time for non-porous BVS rock, though moderate humidity (66–78%) and cool temperatures have limited drying efficiency.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not subject to structural weakening when wet; the risk is purely friction loss on damp surfaces rather than hold breakage.
Early May in the Lakes brings variable conditions with reasonable daylight hours; spring temperatures remain cool (averaging ~9°C) which slows evaporation, but the crag's low altitude and sunny aspect are favourable.
Contributing Factors
6
Trace rain on May 5th (0.6mm), May 6th (0.5mm), and today (0.6mm forecast) means the rock has not had a fully clean dry period.
The S/SW aspect at low altitude receives good solar radiation and is one of the best-drying crags in Borrowdale.
Southerly winds around 15–22 km/h over recent days assist surface evaporation on this partially exposed crag.
Average humidity of 76% over the last week limits evaporative drying and may leave a film of moisture on the rock.
Rain is forecast for every day from tomorrow through May 12th, with high humidity (79–93%) and dropping temperatures, making conditions progressively worse.
Hourly data shows no precipitation until approximately 15:00, giving a usable morning-to-early-afternoon climbing window.
Recommendations
3
- Target a morning-to-early-afternoon session today (before ~14:00) on the main south-facing buttresses for the best chance of dry rock.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area where seepage and tree shade will keep the rock damp longer.
- If visiting, perform a tactile check on holds before committing — the rough BVS texture can feel deceptively grippy even with a thin moisture film.
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
2 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had roughly 1.5 dry days following light rain on May 5th (0.6mm) and a wetter spell on May 3rd (7.9mm), with today forecast completely dry with dropping humidity through the afternoon. The south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock should allow the main buttresses to be dry by midday, but localised dampness is possible in sheltered areas, and a deteriorating forecast from tomorrow onward limits the window.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet weather — the 91.7mm over the past 28 days means seepage lines here may still be active.
- The Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to tree cover and should be checked carefully before committing to routes there.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) make this one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale, and today's afternoon sun window with humidity dropping to 45% favours rapid surface drying.
- A significant wet spell is forecast from May 8th onward (47mm+ over three days), so today and possibly early tomorrow represent the best climbing window for at least a week.
Warnings
1
- BVS rock is noticeably slippery when damp — test friction on lower holds before committing to any route, especially on slab climbs like Brown Crag Wall.
Reasoning
The last significant rain was 7.9mm on May 3rd, followed by a dry May 4th, trace rain on May 5th (0.6mm), and a fully dry day today — the main south-facing buttresses on non-porous rock should have surface-dried, though sheltered or shaded areas may retain dampness.
The south-facing aspect has benefited from moderate SE winds and dropping humidity (down to 45% this afternoon), giving good drying conditions over the past 24–36 hours despite only modest temperatures around 10°C.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage risk is negligible regardless of recent rainfall.
Early May in the Lake District offers lengthening days and improving sun angles for the south-facing aspect, though temperatures remain cool (sub-10°C) which slows evaporation compared to summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
Only 0.6mm fell on May 5th and nothing since, giving over 24 hours of drying on non-porous rock.
91.7mm over the past 28 days means ground saturation and potential seepage from above the crag, particularly on North Buttress.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar drying, and afternoon humidity is forecast to drop to 45% — excellent for surface evaporation.
Rhyolitic volcanic rock does not absorb water, so surface moisture is the only concern and it evaporates quickly in favourable conditions.
Temperatures around 9–10°C are modest and slow evaporation compared to warmer summer conditions.
Heavy rain is forecast from May 8th through May 10th (47mm+), meaning conditions will deteriorate significantly by mid-week.
Recommendations
3
- Climb this afternoon when humidity is lowest (45%) and the south-facing rock has had maximum solar exposure — visually inspect routes for damp patches before committing.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area where seepage and tree shade may keep rock damp despite the dry spell.
- Take advantage of today's window as heavy rain from May 8th onward will put the crag out of condition for several days.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
68%
3 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had a mostly dry spell since the 7.9mm rain on May 3rd, with yesterday (May 4th) completely dry and clearing nicely through the afternoon. Today sees light showers forecast from late afternoon (~0.8mm total), but the main south-facing walls should be largely dry through the early-to-mid afternoon climbing window — visual assessment on arrival is recommended.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 7.9mm rain on May 3rd followed by a full dry day yesterday with afternoon clearing and low humidity (~60%) will have allowed the main south-facing buttresses to dry well, but North Buttress seepage lines may still be active given 10.3mm in the past week and 91.9mm over the past 28 days.
- Brown Crag area's tree cover reduces direct sun exposure and wind, meaning routes there may retain dampness longer than the open south-facing walls like Brown Crag Wall and the Chamonix area.
- Today's northerly wind won't directly warm or dry the south-facing rock as efficiently as the prevailing southerlies, and heavy cloud cover (95-100%) through much of the day limits solar drying.
- Light showers are forecast from around 16:00 today (0.2mm at 16:00, 0.3mm at 18:00), so the best climbing window is before mid-afternoon — plan to be off the crag by 15:30.
Warnings
2
- Light showers are forecast from approximately 16:00 — BVS rhyolite becomes noticeably slippery when wet, so descend before rain arrives.
- Seepage on North Buttress is likely given the wet month; avoid seepage-affected routes.
Reasoning
The main south-facing walls likely have dry surfaces after a full dry day yesterday with clearing skies and moderate wind in the afternoon, though high overnight humidity (86-91%) may have left light condensation that needs to burn off this morning.
Yesterday's afternoon clearing (humidity dropping to 59%, light westerly wind, cloud breaking to 0% by 18:00) provided several good drying hours, but today's northerly aspect wind and persistent cloud cover limit further drying of any residual dampness.
Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite is non-porous and suffers no structural weakening from moisture — the only risk is reduced friction on damp surfaces.
Early May in the Lakes is a transitional period with lengthening days but still-cool temperatures; the prolonged wet April (91.9mm in 28 days) means ground saturation and potential seepage even after short dry spells.
Contributing Factors
6
7.9mm fell on May 3rd but a full dry day yesterday with clearing afternoon conditions allowed good surface drying on the main south-facing walls.
0.8mm of light rain is forecast from late afternoon (16:00 onwards), narrowing the usable climbing window to morning through mid-afternoon.
The S/SW aspect at low altitude (170m) is one of the best-drying orientations in Borrowdale, and even with today's cloud, ambient drying is reasonable.
Persistent 95-100% cloud cover today limits solar drying, and overnight humidity reached 91%, potentially leaving condensation on the rock this morning.
Nearly 92mm in 28 days indicates saturated ground conditions in Borrowdale, increasing the likelihood of seepage on known wet lines despite surface drying.
Moderate northerly wind at ~14 km/h provides some air movement across the south-facing crag but is not as effective for drying as a direct southerly breeze.
Recommendations
3
- Aim to climb between late morning and 15:30 to take advantage of the dry window before forecast showers arrive from 16:00.
- Touch-test the rock surface before committing — the main south-facing buttresses (Chamonix area, Eve Buttress) should be driest; avoid North Buttress and tree-shaded Brown Crag routes if damp.
- Carry a light waterproof and be prepared to retreat promptly if showers arrive earlier than forecast.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
4 days ago
Yesterday's 7.9mm of rain in saturated conditions (90% humidity, 100% cloud) will have left the rock wet overnight, but today's improving afternoon weather — clearing skies, dropping humidity to ~57%, and a gentle NW breeze on this south-facing crag — should allow exposed surfaces to dry by early-to-mid afternoon. Climbers should visually confirm dryness on arrival, particularly on shaded or tree-covered sections.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known for persistent seepage after prolonged wet spells, and the past month has seen over 90mm of rain — expect seepage lines on this buttress even if the main face dries.
- The Brown Crag area is partially sheltered by tree cover which slows drying; routes here may remain damp well into the afternoon even when the main south-facing buttresses are dry.
- Shepherd's Crag's low altitude (170m) and south/south-west aspect mean it receives direct afternoon sun when skies clear, and today's forecast shows cloud dropping to ~20% by mid-afternoon — ideal for rapid surface drying.
- The crag's sheltered Borrowdale valley position means overnight humidity remained very high (90%+), so any condensation or residual dampness from yesterday's rain will take longer to clear than the hourly data alone might suggest.
Warnings
1
- BVS rhyolite becomes noticeably slippery when damp despite its normally excellent friction — test friction carefully on the first moves before committing to harder climbing.
Reasoning
7.9mm of rain fell yesterday across the morning hours in near-saturated conditions (90-98% humidity), and overnight humidity remained above 87%, meaning the rock surface entered today still damp.
Today is dry with humidity falling from ~90% at dawn to ~57% by mid-afternoon, cloud cover dropping significantly after midday, and a light-to-moderate NW wind on this south-facing crag — conditions that should allow exposed BVS rock surfaces to dry within a few hours of sun exposure, likely by early-to-mid afternoon.
Rhyolite/BVS rock is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so there is no hold breakage risk — the only concern is friction loss on damp surfaces.
Early May in the Lake District brings reasonable daylight hours and warming temperatures, but overnight frost potential (min 5.8°C today) and the recent prolonged wet spell mean ground moisture levels are elevated across Borrowdale.
Contributing Factors
7
7.9mm of rain fell yesterday, mostly during the early morning, in near-saturated conditions with 100% cloud cover throughout, leaving the rock wet going into overnight.
Cloud cover drops to 19-31% from 2-5pm with humidity falling to 57% and temperatures reaching 12.4°C, providing good drying conditions on this south-facing crag.
Humidity remained above 87% through the night and early morning, inhibiting overnight drying and likely leaving condensation on the rock surface.
The S/SW aspect at just 170m means direct solar radiation from late morning onwards when skies clear, giving Shepherd's Crag one of the fastest drying profiles in the valley.
Over 90mm of rain in the past 28 days means ground saturation is high, increasing the likelihood of seepage on vulnerable sections like North Buttress.
A 13-14 km/h NW breeze this afternoon aids surface evaporation without being uncomfortable for climbing.
A notable dry spell from April 21-30 (9 consecutive dry days) helped reduce deep-ground moisture, limiting the seepage recharge from recent lighter rainfall.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until early-to-mid afternoon (1-2pm onwards) before climbing to allow maximum drying from the clearing skies and dropping humidity.
- Visually check the rock surface for dampness before committing to a route — the rough BVS texture can feel dry on top while retaining moisture in micro-features.
- Avoid North Buttress and the tree-shaded Brown Crag area today, as these will be slowest to dry; stick to the open south-facing buttresses for best conditions.
Do Not Climb
65%
4 days ago
Shepherd's Crag received 7.8mm of rain today with high humidity (88%) and a NE wind that won't help dry the south-facing rock efficiently. Although the BVS rock is non-porous and dries quickly in favourable conditions, the combination of today's rain, cool temperatures, and unfavourable wind direction means the surface is likely still damp and slippery this afternoon.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after wet spells — the 95mm over the last 28 days means seepage lines are very likely active today and may persist for several days.
- Brown Crag area dries slower than the main face due to tree cover, so even when the main south-facing buttresses appear dry, routes in the Brown Crag area may remain greasy.
- The NE wind today is unfavourable for a S/SW-facing crag — it won't drive airflow across the rock face effectively, slowing surface evaporation compared to the usual SW/S winds.
- The preceding week included a good dry spell (April 23–30) which would have helped drain deeper seepage, but the renewed wet weather from May 1–3 has re-wetted the surface and may have reactivated some seepage lines.
Warnings
2
- The rough BVS texture can feel deceptively grippy when slightly damp but friction drops sharply under load — do not rely on surface appearance alone.
- North Buttress seepage lines may persist for days after the recent wet spell; avoid these routes until a sustained dry period.
Reasoning
The crag received 7.8mm of rain today with 88% humidity, and the surface is almost certainly wet right now despite the non-porous rock type.
The NE wind at 15 km/h is poorly oriented for a S/SW-facing crag, and with only ~10°C and overcast skies implied by high humidity, effective drying today will be minimal.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and suffers no structural weakening when wet — the risk is purely friction loss on the characteristically rough but slippery-when-damp volcanic surface.
Early May in the Lakes means reasonable daylight hours and improving temperatures, but spring weather remains changeable and the recent 95mm over 28 days is typical of a wet Borrowdale spring.
Contributing Factors
7
Significant rainfall today means the rock surface is actively wet or very recently wetted, making friction unreliable.
Very high humidity today suppresses evaporation and will keep the rock surface damp for longer than usual.
The NE wind does not effectively ventilate the south/south-west facing rock, significantly reducing drying rate.
Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite does not absorb water, so once the surface moisture evaporates the rock will be in good condition.
At 170m with a short approach, the crag avoids altitude-related complications and allows flexible timing to wait for drying.
Nearly 100mm over the past month means seepage lines on North Buttress are likely active and drainage from above may feed moisture onto some routes.
Moderate spring temperatures provide less thermal energy for evaporation compared to warmer summer conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow (May 4th) when a dry day with lower humidity and NW wind should allow the south-facing rock to dry through the morning — an afternoon session looks promising.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area for several days as seepage and tree-shaded dampness will persist longer than the main south-facing walls.
- If visiting tomorrow, check the rock surface by hand before committing — look for dark patches and test friction on lower holds before climbing.
Do Not Climb
70%
4 days ago
Shepherd's Crag received 6.9mm of rain today with high humidity (89%), and the rock will be wet or damp this afternoon/evening. While the south-facing BVS rock dries quickly, today is not a climbing day — conditions should improve markedly by tomorrow if the dry forecast holds.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to seepage after the prolonged wet spell from mid-April (94mm in 28 days), and today's rain will reactivate any lingering drainage lines.
- The Brown Crag area's tree cover will slow drying compared to the more open main face — expect damp patches to persist longer there tomorrow morning.
- The south/south-west aspect is a major advantage here: even in early May with moderate temperatures, direct afternoon sun on the main face can dry surface moisture within a few hours of rain stopping.
- The NE wind today (14 km/h) is blowing onto the sheltered side of the crag rather than across the main south face, reducing its drying effectiveness.
Warnings
2
- BVS rhyolite becomes extremely slippery when damp — do not be tempted to climb on apparently 'nearly dry' rock, as friction loss is sudden and significant.
- Seepage lines on North Buttress may persist for several days given the cumulative wet spell — test holds carefully even on otherwise dry days.
Reasoning
With 6.9mm falling today at 89% humidity and a NE wind that doesn't efficiently ventilate the south-facing rock, surface moisture will be present across most of the crag right now.
The south-facing aspect normally dries rapidly, but today's NE wind direction, high humidity, and modest temperatures (~10°C) mean drying will be slower than typical — a full dry-out is unlikely before end of day.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and suffers no structural weakening when wet; the risk is purely friction-related slipperiness on the crystalline surface.
Early May in Borrowdale brings reasonable daylight hours and improving temperatures, but the recent 94mm over 28 days means the hillside above is saturated, feeding potential seepage on some lines.
Contributing Factors
6
Significant rainfall today means the rock surface is currently wet, with high humidity (89%) slowing evaporation.
The S/SW aspect and low altitude (170m) mean the crag dries faster than almost any other venue in Borrowdale, but today's conditions limit this advantage.
94mm over the past 28 days has saturated the hillside, increasing the likelihood of seepage on North Buttress and drainage-fed routes.
Today's NE wind at 14 km/h is sheltered from the main south-facing rock, reducing its drying contribution.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once surface moisture evaporates the rock returns to full friction — no extended drying period needed.
Very high humidity today dramatically slows surface evaporation even where the rock catches sun.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet from this morning's rain and high humidity will keep it damp into the evening.
- Tomorrow (May 4) looks promising with a dry forecast and westerly breeze; arrive after midday to allow the south face maximum sun exposure for drying.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag for an extra day after rain due to known seepage and tree-shade slowing drying.
Do Not Climb
65%
4 days ago
Shepherd's Crag received 5.4mm of rain today with high humidity (89%), and the rock is almost certainly wet right now. Although BVS rock dries quickly and the south-facing aspect is favourable, there has been no drying window today and residual moisture from a generally wet spring makes seepage areas likely to be active.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines are likely active given 92.6mm of rain in the last 28 days — avoid routes in that area even if main buttresses appear dry.
- The Brown Crag area, which is partially shaded by tree cover, will be slower to dry than the main open south-facing walls and should be treated with extra caution.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) mean the main buttresses will benefit from any afternoon sun tomorrow, making this one of the first crags in Borrowdale to come back into condition.
- Despite the prolonged wet April, the extended dry spell from April 21–30 (10 consecutive dry days) will have allowed deep seepage to partially drain, so recovery after today's rain should be faster than if it had been continuously wet.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes noticeably slippery when damp — do not attempt routes if the surface is not fully dry, as the friction loss is significant.
- Check BMC RAD for bird nesting restrictions before visiting — peregrine and raven closures may be active at Shepherd's Crag in May.
Reasoning
With 5.4mm of rain falling today under 89% humidity and only 12.2 km/h NE wind (sheltered from the south-facing rock), the rock surface is currently wet and conditions are unsuitable.
The NE wind direction today is unfavourable for this S/SW-facing crag, providing minimal surface drying; meaningful drying will require tomorrow's forecast westerly wind and any direct sun on the south-facing aspect.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage when wet — there is no hold breakage or rock conservation concern.
Early May in the Lakes offers improving daylight and temperatures, but the recent wet pattern (92.6mm in 28 days) means seepage zones may remain active; spring conditions remain variable with overnight frost still possible.
Contributing Factors
7
5.4mm fell today with zero dry days since, leaving surface rock wet and friction compromised.
Today's 89% humidity severely impedes evaporative drying of surface moisture.
NE wind does not effectively reach this south/south-west facing crag, reducing wind-assisted drying.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so surface moisture will clear relatively quickly once drying conditions arrive.
The favourable S/SW aspect at 170m means the crag will dry faster than most Lake District venues once sun and wind return.
Cumulative rainfall over the past month increases the likelihood of persistent seepage from drainage lines above the crag.
A 10-day dry spell with warm temperatures up to 19.3°C likely drained deeper seepage before the recent return of rain.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet from this morning's rain and high humidity will prevent adequate drying.
- Tomorrow (May 4th) looks more promising with dry weather and westerly wind; visit in the afternoon to allow maximum drying time on the south-facing walls.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag seepage areas for at least 24–48 hours; focus on the main open south-facing buttresses if conditions allow.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
5 days ago
Shepherd's Crag had an excellent drying spell from April 21–30 but has received light rain on May 1 (1.5mm) and today May 2 (1.3mm), with humidity currently at 84%. The south-facing BVS rock should shed this light moisture quickly, but with no consecutive dry days and high humidity, a visual check on arrival is essential before committing to routes.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The extended dry spell from April 21–30 (10 days, near-zero precipitation) will have thoroughly dried out any deep seepage lines on North Buttress from the heavy mid-April rain, so residual seepage is unlikely to be a concern today.
- Brown Crag area routes may retain surface dampness longer than the main south-facing buttresses due to tree cover limiting solar exposure and air circulation.
- Today's 84% humidity and SW wind will slow surface evaporation even on the sun-facing rock; afternoon conditions are likely better than morning as any solar heating takes effect.
- The very light recent rain (1.3mm today, 1.5mm yesterday) on non-porous BVS rock is the kind that can dry within hours given sunshine, but overcast humid conditions could keep the surface greasy.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock offers superb friction when dry but becomes noticeably slippery when damp — do not assume light rain is harmless; test friction carefully before committing to any route.
- Tomorrow (May 3) is forecast to bring 7mm of rain with 87% humidity — conditions will deteriorate significantly; plan today as a potential last window before an unsettled spell.
Reasoning
The rock received only 2.8mm total over the last two days after an extended 10-day dry period, so while the surface may currently be damp, there is no deep saturation concern on this non-porous volcanic rock.
The south/south-west aspect and partial wind exposure would normally dry 1–2mm of surface moisture within a few hours, but today's 84% humidity and overcast conditions will significantly slow evaporation.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer hold breakage or weakening when wet; the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Early May is a good time for Shepherd's Crag with improving day length and solar angle, though this week's forecast shows unsettled conditions returning with cooler temperatures and frequent light rain.
Contributing Factors
6
Light rain today (1.3mm) and yesterday (1.5mm) means the rock surface is likely damp right now despite the prior dry spell.
Ten consecutive dry days from April 21–30 with low humidity fully dried the crag, meaning no deep seepage or residual moisture issues from the heavy mid-April rainfall.
Today's 84% humidity will slow surface evaporation and may keep the rough BVS texture feeling greasy even where not visibly wet.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar gain in spring, and any sunshine breaks today could dry the light surface moisture within an hour or two.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate — no extended drying period required after light rain.
7mm of rain is forecast for tomorrow (May 3), with further light showers on May 5 and 6, limiting opportunities for sustained drying this week.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon rather than the morning to allow any sunshine to dry the light surface moisture from today's rain.
- Prioritise the main south-facing buttresses (e.g. Little Chamonix area) which dry fastest; avoid Brown Crag routes under tree cover and check North Buttress for any lingering dampness.
- Carry a towel and test friction on lower holds before committing — if the rough BVS texture feels at all slippery or greasy, conditions are not adequate for safe climbing.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
65%
6 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had an excellent drying window from April 21–30 (10 mostly dry days with warm temperatures and low humidity), but today's 2.3mm of rain has interrupted this run. The south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock mean surface moisture from today's light rain should clear quickly, but conditions need visual verification on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The long dry spell from April 21–30 (with only a trace 0.2mm on the 26th) will have thoroughly dried out any seepage on North Buttress that built up from the very wet mid-April period (36.6mm from April 15–17).
- Brown Crag area's tree cover may retain dampness from today's 2.3mm shower longer than the open south-facing buttresses, which should dry within a few hours of sunshine.
- Today's rain is light (2.3mm) falling on thoroughly pre-dried rock — this is a surface wetting event only, not a deep saturation, so the main buttresses should recover quickly given the warm temperatures (17.9°C max).
- The forecast shows a significant wet spell arriving May 3 (12.2mm) with high humidity (93%), so today and tomorrow represent the last good window before conditions deteriorate for several days.
Warnings
2
- Do not commit to routes if the rock surface feels greasy on touch-test — BVS rock is noticeably slippery when even slightly damp and friction loss is the primary safety concern.
- The forecast window is closing: heavy rain arrives May 3, so plan accordingly and do not assume conditions will hold beyond tomorrow.
Reasoning
Today's 2.3mm of rain has deposited surface moisture on rock that was thoroughly dry after 9+ consecutive dry days; the non-porous BVS rock will not have absorbed any water, so this is purely a surface drying problem.
The south/south-west aspect with moderate southerly winds (16.6 km/h) and warm temperatures (17.9°C) should allow surface moisture from 2.3mm to evaporate within a few hours on exposed faces, though sheltered areas and tree-covered sections may take longer.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard; there is no hold breakage or rock damage concern from wet climbing, only friction loss.
Early May in the Lakes is a transitional period with lengthening days and increasing solar angle, both favouring drying on this south-facing crag; however, spring weather remains changeable as the incoming forecast demonstrates.
Contributing Factors
6
2.3mm of precipitation today has broken the dry spell and deposited surface moisture that needs to evaporate before climbing.
Nine essentially dry days (April 21–30) with warm temperatures up to 19.3°C and low humidity (42–76%) will have thoroughly dried any deep seepage and drainage lines.
South-facing aspect at 170m with 17.9°C today and moderate southerly winds should promote rapid surface drying after this morning's light rain.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so today's rain is a surface-only issue that will clear quickly in favourable conditions.
Humidity at 63% is moderate — not ideal for rapid drying but not prohibitively high either.
Heavy rain forecast for May 3 (12.2mm, 93% humidity) means the window for climbing is narrow — today and tomorrow are the best opportunities before a multi-day wet spell.
Recommendations
3
- Visit later in the day to allow maximum drying time from today's rain — afternoon sessions on the main south-facing buttresses should find the best conditions.
- Prioritise the open, sun-exposed buttresses (Fisher's Folly area, Eve Buttress) and avoid Brown Crag and North Buttress which dry more slowly due to tree cover and aspect.
- Check BMC RAD for any bird nesting restrictions at Shepherd's Crag — peregrine and raven restrictions may be active through June at nearby Borrowdale crags.
Likely Safe to Climb
90%
9 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had three consecutive dry days following only a trace of rain (0.2mm in the last week), with today forecast dry, warm (15°C), and low humidity (60%). The south-facing BVS rock should be thoroughly dry and offering excellent friction.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The prolonged dry spell since April 26 (0.2mm trace only), combined with the south-facing aspect and recent warm temperatures up to 18°C, means even the slower-drying Brown Crag area under tree cover should be fully dry by now.
- North Buttress seepage lines are unlikely to be active given only 0.2mm of rain in the past week, though the heavy cumulative rainfall earlier in April (125.7mm over 28 days) means ground-fed seepage cannot be entirely ruled out — a quick visual check is worthwhile.
- The easterly wind today provides less direct drying benefit to the south-facing rock than the prevailing southerlies, but with humidity at 60% and no precipitation, this is a minor factor.
- April is within the peregrine nesting season (February–June) — climbers should check BMC RAD for any current restrictions at Shepherd's Crag before visiting.
Reasoning
The rock surface should be fully dry — three consecutive dry days with only a 0.2mm trace of rain in the last week, warm temperatures, and moderate humidity have allowed thorough drying of this non-porous volcanic rock.
The south/south-west aspect has received good solar radiation over recent days (temperatures reaching 17–18°C), and moderate winds have aided evaporation; even sheltered areas under tree cover at Brown Crag should be dry after 3+ days.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard; there is no concern about hold breakage or rock weakening from moisture.
Late April offers lengthening days and improving solar angles, providing good drying conditions; overnight frost (min 0°C recently) is not a concern for non-porous rock and actually aids drying by lowering humidity.
Contributing Factors
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Only 0.2mm of rain in the past 7 days with 3 consecutive fully dry days, giving ample time for all surface moisture to evaporate from non-porous rock.
Recent highs of 17–18°C with a south-facing aspect have maximised solar drying, and today's forecast of 15°C continues the trend.
Humidity at 60% today and averaging 62% over the past week is well below levels that would cause condensation or impede drying.
125.7mm over 28 days is substantial and could sustain deeper seepage lines, but 3+ dry days is sufficient for surface drying on non-porous rock.
Partial wind exposure with ~16 km/h today assists surface drying even in sheltered areas of the crag.
Recommendations
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- Conditions are excellent for climbing today — enjoy the dry BVS friction on the main south-facing buttresses.
- Give North Buttress a quick visual check for any residual ground-fed seepage before committing to routes there, given the wet month overall.
- Check BMC RAD for any active bird nesting restrictions at Shepherd's Crag, as April falls within the peregrine nesting season.
Climbing Outlook