Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Despite a relatively dry spell from late April into early May, 12.1mm of rain on May 3rd followed by further light precipitation on May 5th and today (May 7th, 2.3mm forecast) means the rock has not had adequate consecutive drying time. The NW aspect at 430m, persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and incoming heavy rain tomorrow make conditions unsuitable.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m with NW aspect, Simonside is frequently in cloud even without rain — mist contact alone keeps the rock surface damp and resets drying progress.
- The condition report from April 12th noted only wind-exposed and south-facing problems were dry after a similar wet spell, confirming that many routes hold moisture for extended periods.
- The long walk-in (30+ minutes) means conditions can change significantly between the car park and the crag, and retreat in deteriorating weather is not trivial.
- NE winds forecast for the coming days will blow directly onto the NW-facing crag, driving moisture into the rock face rather than aiding drying.
Warnings
3
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — climbing on damp rock risks permanent hold breakage and serious injury.
- The rock surface may appear dry while remaining internally saturated; do not rely on surface appearance alone at this site.
- Sub-zero overnight temperatures combined with likely internal moisture create residual freeze-thaw damage risk to the rock.
Reasoning
The 12.1mm event on May 3rd, 0.8mm on May 5th, and 2.3mm today mean the rock has had no more than one consecutive dry day since significant wetting, and at 430m with 77–82% humidity the sandstone interior will still be holding substantial moisture.
Only May 4th and May 6th were dry between the heavy May 3rd rain and today's rain, and with moderate winds (11–17 km/h) and high humidity (70–82%) on those days, the NW-facing rock at this altitude would not have dried adequately from 12mm+ of rain.
With the rock likely still internally saturated from repeated recent wetting events, climbing risks hold breakage on this iron-oxide-cemented Fell Sandstone where even 1% saturation begins to reduce strength significantly.
Early May at 430m is marginal for Simonside — overnight temperatures have dropped below 0°C multiple times recently (May 1st, May 6th), and while freeze-thaw risk is decreasing it has not fully passed at this altitude.
Contributing Factors
8
12.1mm fell on May 3rd at 96% humidity, thoroughly saturating the porous sandstone with insufficient drying time since.
2.3mm today and 2.8mm forecast tomorrow prevent any meaningful drying window from developing.
The NW-facing crag receives negligible direct sunlight, severely limiting solar-assisted evaporation and extending drying times.
At 430m with 90–100% cloud cover much of today, the crag is likely in or near mist, depositing surface moisture even during dry hours.
Average humidity of 79% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, especially at this altitude.
The exposed summit position receives reasonable wind which is the primary drying mechanism at this site, though recent winds have been moderate rather than strong.
Overnight lows of -2.0°C on May 6th and -0.0°C on May 1st with likely saturated rock raise residual freeze-thaw concerns.
15.2mm forecast on May 9th with 92% humidity will thoroughly re-saturate the rock, extending the window of poor conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or in the coming days — the rock has been repeatedly wetted with no adequate drying window and heavy rain is forecast for May 9th.
- Monitor conditions from mid-May onwards if a sustained dry spell of 3+ days materialises with good wind, and visually check the crag base for dampness before committing.
- If visiting the area, consider alternative non-porous rock venues (e.g. whinstone crags) that are less moisture-sensitive.
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
2 days ago
The rock has had roughly two dry days since the last significant rain (12.1mm on May 3rd), with only trace precipitation since, but high humidity, NW aspect, and 430m altitude limit drying effectiveness. Today's low humidity afternoon (43–48%) and moderate SE wind offer a reasonable drying window, but internal moisture likely persists, and heavy rain arrives from tomorrow evening onward.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m with NW aspect, Simonside is frequently in cloud — even on dry days, mist contact can keep the rock surface damp without registering as precipitation.
- The 12.1mm event on May 3rd was accompanied by 96% humidity, meaning the rock likely absorbed significant moisture that the subsequent ~2.5 dry days have only partially removed.
- Wind-exposed problems and any south-facing aspects will have dried far faster than sheltered NW-facing sections — conditions will vary dramatically across the crag.
- A major wet spell is forecast from May 8–10 (59mm+), which will reset drying entirely and likely make the crag unclimbable for several days afterward.
Warnings
2
- Overnight frost on potentially damp rock creates freeze-thaw damage risk — even climbing on apparently dry holds could break weakened features.
- The April 12th condition report noted many problems looked OK, but 42.8mm of rain has fallen since then — do not assume those same conditions persist.
Reasoning
The 12.1mm rain on May 3rd at 96% humidity saturated the rock significantly; only ~2.5 dry days have followed with moderate temperatures (9–15°C) and humidity averaging around 77%, leaving internal moisture likely still elevated especially on NW-facing surfaces.
The exposed position and moderate winds (15–20 km/h) have aided surface drying, but the NW aspect receives minimal direct sun and today's overnight frost (-1°C) would have slowed evaporation; the afternoon's drop to 43% humidity with SE wind is the best drying window in days.
With only ~2.5 days of drying after 12.1mm of rain on already-moist sandstone (42.8mm in 28 days), internal pore saturation may still be above the threshold where significant strength loss occurs, posing a real risk of hold breakage on smaller features.
Early May at 430m altitude is marginal for Simonside — overnight temperatures are still dropping below 0°C, and the condition notes identify May–September as the primary season; freeze-thaw cycling remains a minor concern with overnight frosts on potentially damp rock.
Contributing Factors
7
12.1mm fell on May 3rd at 96% humidity, thoroughly wetting the rock, with only ~2.5 dry days of recovery.
42.8mm over the past 28 days means the rock has had limited opportunity to fully dry out at depth.
Humidity drops to 43–48% this afternoon with moderate SE wind, providing the best drying conditions in several days.
The NW-facing aspect receives almost no direct sunlight, drastically slowing evaporation compared to south-facing crags.
The exposed summit ridge position allows wind to move moist air away from the rock surface, partially compensating for lack of sun.
Temperatures dropped to -1°C overnight and have been sub-zero on several recent nights, creating freeze-thaw risk on any rock retaining internal moisture.
59mm+ of rain is forecast May 8–10, which will completely re-saturate the rock and close any viable climbing window.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, focus on wind-exposed and any south-facing problems that feel warm and completely dry to the touch; abandon any route where the rock feels cold or tacky.
- Apply the base-of-crag ground test: if soil and moss at the crag base are damp, the rock interior is still wet — do not climb.
- Do not plan climbing from May 8th onward; the incoming 59mm+ of rain will require at least 3–4 dry days of good conditions afterward before the rock is safe.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
3 days ago
The last significant rain was 12.1mm on May 3rd, giving only ~1.5 dry days of drying time. While yesterday (May 4th) was fully dry with moderate winds and reasonable temperatures, the NW aspect at 430m altitude with persistent high cloud cover and humidity around 80% means drying has been slow. Exposed, wind-facing problems may be climbable, but internal moisture is likely still present in many areas.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Simonside's 430m summit ridge is frequently in cloud — today's forecast shows near-100% cloud cover through the middle of the day, which can deposit surface moisture even without recorded precipitation.
- The NW aspect receives virtually no direct sun in spring, so drying relies almost entirely on wind evaporation; the moderate northerly wind today (22 km/h) helps but cannot compensate for the lack of solar heating.
- The condition report from April 12th noted that wind-exposed and south-facing problems dried while others remained damp — expect the same patchwork today with sheltered corners and north-facing slabs still holding moisture.
- The 28-day cumulative rainfall of 42mm means the rock has had repeated wetting cycles through April with little chance to dry out fully at depth; even surface-dry holds may be structurally weakened internally.
Warnings
2
- Only 1.5 dry days have passed since 12.1mm of rain — the recommended minimum for this volume is 48–72 hours; internal moisture is very likely still present.
- Near-freezing overnight temperatures (down to -0.3°C on May 5th) combined with recent saturation create freeze-thaw risk that can weaken holds.
Reasoning
12.1mm fell on May 3rd with only ~1.5 days of drying since; at 430m with NW aspect, 80% average humidity, and persistent cloud, internal moisture levels are likely still elevated despite surface drying on exposed faces.
Yesterday's dry conditions with moderate SW wind and temperatures reaching 14.9°C provided useful drying, but today is cooler (max 10°C) with northerly wind and near-total cloud cover, slowing evaporation significantly on this NW-facing crag.
With 42mm of rain in the last 28 days and only brief drying windows, the sandstone has been repeatedly saturated; iron oxide holds are at moderate risk of breakage, particularly on less-exposed problems that haven't dried thoroughly.
Early May is marginal for Simonside — the crag is described as primarily a May–September venue, and current temperatures (max 10°C) and persistent cloud are at the cooler end of the season window.
Contributing Factors
8
12.1mm fell on May 3rd at 96% humidity, thoroughly saturating the porous sandstone just 1.5 days ago.
Only one full dry day (May 4th) has passed since the heavy rain, falling short of the recommended 48–72 hours for >10mm rainfall.
The NW-facing aspect receives negligible direct sunlight in spring, meaning drying depends almost entirely on wind and ambient evaporation.
At 430m with near-100% cloud cover forecast today, the crag is likely in or near cloud, depositing surface moisture even without rain.
Winds of 17–23 km/h today and 15–17 km/h yesterday help strip surface moisture from exposed faces, partially compensating for poor aspect.
Today's maximum of ~10°C and overnight near-freezing temps significantly slow evaporation rates at this altitude.
Humidity averaging 74–80% over the past week limits the atmosphere's capacity to absorb moisture from the rock surface.
42mm over 28 days with repeated wet spells means the rock has had little opportunity for deep drying, keeping internal moisture elevated.
Recommendations
3
- If you go, restrict climbing to the most wind-exposed and any south-facing problems, and perform a thorough touch-test on holds before committing — if anything feels cool or tacky, walk away.
- The forecast for May 6–8 shows a dry spell with dropping humidity (64–73%) which will significantly improve conditions; waiting 1–2 days is the more responsible choice.
- Check the base of the crag on arrival: if the ground or lower rock is damp, internal moisture is still too high and you should not climb.
Do Not Climb
55%
4 days ago
Yesterday (May 3rd) saw 12.1mm of heavy rain with near-saturated humidity (96–99%) and 100% cloud cover throughout the day, thoroughly soaking the rock. Despite today's improving conditions with dropping humidity and moderate westerly wind, only ~24 hours of drying have elapsed — insufficient for porous Fell Sandstone at this altitude and NW aspect after such significant rainfall.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Simonside's 430m summit ridge was almost certainly in cloud throughout yesterday's rain event (100% cloud, 96–99% humidity), meaning the rock was subjected to prolonged direct moisture contact beyond just rainfall totals.
- The NW aspect receives virtually no direct sun in spring, so drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature — the moderate W wind today helps but cannot compensate for only one day of drying after heavy rain.
- The condition report from April 12th noted that only wind-exposed and south-facing problems looked dry even after modest earlier rain, confirming that sheltered and NW-facing sections retain moisture far longer at this crag.
- The preceding weeks have been persistently damp (42mm in 28 days, average humidity 81%) meaning the rock's background moisture level was already elevated before yesterday's 12.1mm event.
Warnings
2
- Yesterday's 12.1mm of rain in saturating cloud conditions means the rock is almost certainly still wet internally despite any surface drying today — climbing risks permanent hold damage on these irreplaceable Fell Sandstone routes.
- The approaching NE wind and 1.9mm rain forecast for May 5th will blow directly onto the NW face and reset drying progress.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly still saturated internally after 12.1mm of rain yesterday delivered in near-100% humidity cloud conditions, with only ~18 hours of meaningful drying since rain stopped.
Today's westerly wind (10–14 km/h) and dropping humidity (down to 48% by mid-afternoon) will aid surface drying, but the NW aspect and lack of direct sun mean internal moisture will persist well beyond one day for this porous sandstone.
With the rock likely still above the critical 1% saturation threshold internally, there is significant risk of hold breakage and grain loosening on these iron-oxide-cemented Fell Sandstone routes.
Early May is the beginning of Simonside's climbing season but conditions remain marginal — overnight temperatures near freezing (-0.0°C on May 1st, -0.3°C on Apr 29th) indicate the crag is only just emerging from its cold-season vulnerability.
Contributing Factors
7
12.1mm fell on May 3rd with 100% cloud and 96–99% humidity, thoroughly saturating the porous sandstone.
Only approximately 18–24 hours have passed since significant rain ceased, far short of the 48–72+ hours recommended after heavy rain on porous sandstone.
Humidity is dropping to around 48–55% this afternoon with moderate westerly wind and temperatures reaching 14.9°C, which will begin the drying process.
The NW-facing aspect receives minimal direct spring sun, meaning drying depends almost entirely on wind evaporation rather than solar heating.
42mm of rain in the past 28 days with average humidity of 81% means the rock's baseline moisture content was already elevated before yesterday's soaking.
The summit ridge position is highly exposed to wind, which is the single most effective drying mechanism for this NW-facing crag.
At 430m the crag is frequently in cloud, and yesterday's 100% cloud cover means mist likely deposited additional surface moisture beyond measured precipitation.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — allow at least another 24–48 hours of dry weather for the rock to dry internally after yesterday's 12.1mm soaking.
- If visiting the area, use today for the walk-in to visually assess conditions and check the base of the crag for dampness — if the ground is moist, the rock is certainly still wet inside.
- Consider May 6th or 7th as the earliest realistic window, provided the forecast light rain on May 5th is minimal and drying conditions hold.
Do Not Climb
92%
4 days ago
Simonside received nearly 12mm of rain today with 95% humidity and NE winds blowing directly onto the NW face — the rock will be thoroughly saturated. At 430m altitude with a NW aspect, drying will be extremely slow and conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m with a NW aspect, Simonside is frequently in cloud and mist even without recorded precipitation, meaning surface moisture can persist well beyond what rainfall data alone suggests.
- The NE wind today blows almost directly onto the NW-facing crag, driving rain into the rock face and maximising water absorption rather than aiding drying.
- The April 12 condition report noted that only wind-exposed and south-facing problems looked dry after a similar wet spell — the majority of NW-facing problems will take significantly longer to dry.
- The long walk-in (30+ minutes) means conditions cannot be quickly reassessed; committing to the approach in marginal conditions risks a wasted trip.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated Fell Sandstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds — the NMC 'Love the rocks' ethic explicitly prohibits this.
- At 430m with NE winds and near-freezing overnight lows forecast, hypothermia risk is elevated for anyone caught out on the hill in wet conditions.
Reasoning
Today's 11.9mm of rain at 95% humidity will have driven the porous Fell Sandstone well past the critical 1% saturation threshold, with the wetting front advancing rapidly through the rock.
The NW aspect receives minimal direct sun and the NE wind direction today drives moisture onto the face rather than aiding evaporation; meaningful drying cannot begin until wind direction shifts and humidity drops significantly.
With the rock thoroughly saturated after heavy rain, compressive strength will be reduced by 30%+ and iron oxide holds are at serious risk of breakage — climbing now would cause permanent damage.
Early May is at the very start of Simonside's climbing season; the preceding weeks have been persistently damp (45mm in 28 days) and temperatures have been modest, meaning the rock has had little opportunity to dry out fully at depth.
Contributing Factors
6
11.9mm of precipitation today will have fully saturated the exposed sandstone surfaces and internal pore structure.
At 95% relative humidity there is almost no evaporative drying potential, so the rock cannot shed moisture.
The NW-facing crag receives minimal direct sunlight, removing solar heating as a drying mechanism.
Today's NE wind blows almost directly onto the NW face, driving moisture into the rock rather than drying it.
At 430m the crag is frequently in cloud, adding surface moisture from mist even between rain events.
45mm of rain over the past 28 days with high average humidity (81%) means the rock has had little opportunity to dry internally.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Simonside today — the rock is saturated and climbing would risk both safety and permanent crag damage.
- Wait for at least 48–72 hours of dry weather with humidity below 75% and favourable wind before considering a visit.
- If keen to climb this weekend, consider lower-altitude, south-facing, or non-porous rock alternatives in the region such as Bowden Doors (if dry) or whinstone crags like Crag Lough.
Do Not Climb
92%
4 days ago
Today saw 13.3mm of heavy rain with 95% humidity and NE winds blowing directly onto the NW-facing crag — Simonside will be thoroughly saturated. At 430m altitude with a NW aspect, drying will be very slow and climbing today or in the immediate aftermath is not appropriate.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m on a NW aspect, Simonside is frequently in cloud even without rain, and mist alone can maintain surface moisture that prevents internal drying.
- NE wind today blows directly onto the NW-facing rock, driving rain into the surface and maximising water absorption rather than aiding evaporation.
- The April condition report from the 12th noted only wind-exposed and south-facing problems were dry — NW-facing lines take significantly longer to come into condition.
- The long walk-in (30+ minutes) means conditions can change during the approach, and retreating from a saturated summit crag in poor weather wastes significant effort.
Warnings
3
- 13.3mm of rain today has saturated the Fell Sandstone — climbing now risks catastrophic hold breakage and permanent route damage.
- Surface-dry appearance can be deceptive: the interior of the rock will remain saturated long after the surface looks climbable.
- NE wind and cloud at 430m altitude create a serious wind-chill hazard on the exposed summit ridge today.
Reasoning
13.3mm of rain today at 95% humidity will have deeply saturated the porous Fell Sandstone, with the wetting front advancing rapidly through the high-porosity weathered surface — the rock is fully wet internally and externally.
With NE winds blowing onto the NW face today, there has been no effective drying; even tomorrow's shift to W winds at 15.8km/h with 74% humidity will only begin surface drying, and 48-72+ hours of dry weather are needed after this volume of rain.
At current saturation levels, compressive strength will be reduced by 30%+ and iron oxide holds are at serious risk of breakage — climbing now would cause permanent damage to routes.
Early May is marginal for Simonside even in good weather; the recent pattern of frequent light rain events through April has kept background moisture levels persistently elevated, compounding today's heavy soaking.
Contributing Factors
7
13.3mm of rain is the heaviest single-day total in the 28-day record, requiring a minimum 48-72+ hours of dry weather to recover.
At 95% relative humidity there is virtually no net evaporation, meaning zero effective drying is occurring today.
Today's NE wind blows directly onto the NW-facing crag, driving rain into the rock surface rather than aiding evaporation.
At 430m the crag is frequently in cloud, and mist deposits additional surface moisture even between rain events.
The NW-facing aspect receives very little direct sunlight, removing solar heating as a drying mechanism.
46.5mm over the last 28 days with average 81% humidity means background moisture levels in the sandstone have been chronically elevated.
When winds shift to W/SW in coming days, the exposed summit position will benefit from effective wind-drying on the face.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Simonside today — the rock is thoroughly saturated and any climbing risks permanent hold damage.
- Allow a minimum of 48-72 hours of dry weather with favourable winds before considering a visit; realistically target May 6th or 7th at the earliest.
- On arrival, check the ground at the base of the crag — if soil or vegetation is damp, assume the sandstone is still wet internally regardless of surface appearance.
Do Not Climb
90%
4 days ago
Today has seen 15.3mm of heavy rain with 96% humidity and NE winds blowing directly onto the NW-facing crag, thoroughly saturating the rock. Simonside will need multiple dry days to recover from this soaking, and conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m with NW aspect, the crag is likely in cloud today given 96% humidity and NE winds, adding continuous surface moisture on top of the 15.3mm rain.
- NE wind direction today blows directly onto the NW-facing rock, driving moisture into the face rather than aiding drying.
- The most recent condition report (12 April) noted that only wind-exposed and south-facing problems looked dry after a similar wet spell — NW-facing problems will be the last to dry.
- The long walk-in (30+ minutes) means conditions cannot be quickly assessed and abandoned; committing to the approach in these conditions is inadvisable.
Warnings
2
- 15.3mm of rain at 96% humidity means the sandstone is deeply saturated — climbing today would cause irreversible damage to irreplaceable routes.
- The rock surface may appear to dry quickly in wind but the interior will remain dangerously weak for days.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly fully saturated after 15.3mm of rain today at 96% humidity, compounded by 16.3mm in the preceding week and persistently high humidity (81% average over 7 days).
No meaningful drying has occurred today; NE winds at 15.5 km/h are blowing moisture directly onto the NW face, and the near-100% humidity eliminates any net evaporation from the rock surface.
Fell Sandstone at this saturation level will have lost 30%+ of its compressive strength, with iron oxide holds at serious risk of breakage — climbing now would risk permanent route damage.
Early May is marginal for Simonside even in good weather; overnight frost risk (min near 0°C recently) combined with saturated rock raises freeze-thaw concerns, and the venue is only just entering its usable season.
Contributing Factors
7
15.3mm of rain today has thoroughly saturated the porous sandstone, requiring a minimum 48–72 hours of dry weather to recover.
At 96% relative humidity there is virtually no net evaporation, so the rock cannot dry at all today.
The NE wind direction drives moisture directly into the NW-facing crag rather than aiding drying.
At 430m with 96% humidity, the crag is very likely in cloud, adding continuous surface moisture from mist.
48.5mm over the last 28 days and 16.3mm in the last 7 days means the rock has had limited opportunity to dry out internally.
The NW-facing aspect receives very little direct sun, dramatically slowing any drying process.
Today's range of 6.9–9.9°C avoids immediate freeze-thaw risk but is too cool to aid drying significantly.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Simonside today — the rock is saturated and climbing would risk permanent damage to holds and routes.
- Wait for at least 48–72 hours of dry, breezy weather before considering a visit; check conditions around May 6–7 at the earliest.
- When you do visit, test the ground at the crag base — if the soil and sand are still moist, the rock interior is almost certainly still wet.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
50%
5 days ago
Recent days have been largely dry with only trace precipitation, and the exposed position should have aided drying, but persistent high humidity (79% average), NW aspect, and today's trace rain mean the rock may not be fully dry internally. A careful on-site assessment is warranted before committing to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m with NW aspect, Simonside is frequently in low cloud even on otherwise dry days, and mist-deposited surface moisture can keep the rock damp without measurable rainfall.
- The exposed summit ridge position means wind-assisted drying is a major asset here — but recent winds have been light-to-moderate (11–20 km/h) and often from the east/NE, which blows onto the NW face rather than across it, reducing effective drying.
- The condition report from April 12 noted wind-exposed and south-facing problems drying well, but many NW-facing problems would have been slower to dry — this pattern will persist today.
- The long walk-in (30+ minutes) means conditions should be verified at the crag before committing; retreating after finding damp rock wastes significant effort.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain (7.4mm) is forecast for tomorrow (May 3), which will reset drying entirely — do not plan to climb tomorrow.
- High humidity (93%) and NE wind forecast for May 3 will blow moisture directly onto the NW face.
Reasoning
The last significant rain was 1.2mm on April 20–21, with only trace amounts since (0.1mm on April 26, 0.3mm on April 28, 0.5mm on May 1, 0.2mm today), but persistently high humidity around 79–86% and the NW aspect mean residual moisture from the wetter mid-April period (8.5mm on April 15, 3.2mm on April 16, 2.8mm on April 17) may still linger internally.
There have been roughly 10 days since the last meaningful rain with moderate winds, which should be adequate drying time for most surfaces on an exposed crag, though the NW aspect and high humidity significantly slow evaporation compared to south-facing venues.
Internal moisture levels are likely low enough that structural risk is modest, but the persistent humidity and trace precipitation mean some dampness could remain in sheltered or recessed areas, posing a hold breakage risk if climbed aggressively.
Early May is the start of Simonside's usable season, but spring conditions at 430m remain marginal with overnight frosts still occurring (min -0.3°C on April 29) and humidity rarely dropping below 70%.
Contributing Factors
7
Only 2.3mm of trace precipitation over the last 10 days, with the last significant rain (2.8mm) falling on April 17 — over two weeks ago.
Average humidity of 79% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, especially on a NW-facing crag at altitude.
The NW-facing aspect receives very little direct sunlight, meaning solar-driven drying is negligible and the crag relies almost entirely on wind.
The exposed summit ridge benefits from wind-assisted drying, though recent winds have been moderate (15–21 km/h) rather than the strong gusts that dry this crag most effectively.
At 430m, the crag is frequently enveloped in low cloud that deposits surface moisture even without measurable rain, and today's 79% humidity and trace rain suggest possible mist.
0.2mm recorded today resets the consecutive dry day count to zero and indicates current moisture at the crag surface.
Several recent nights have dipped below freezing (min -1.7°C on April 24, -0.3°C on April 29), creating potential freeze-thaw stress if any internal moisture remains.
Recommendations
3
- Given the long walk-in, check conditions carefully on arrival — touch-test the rock in sheltered recesses and check if the base of the crag feels damp before climbing.
- Prioritise wind-exposed arêtes and faces over sheltered corners or recessed features, which will hold moisture longer in these conditions.
- Be prepared to walk away without climbing — with heavy rain forecast for May 3 (7.4mm) and May 6 (9.9mm), today may be the best window but only if on-site conditions confirm dryness.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
6 days ago
Three consecutive dry days with today's warm temperatures (21°C) and moderate SW wind suggest wind-exposed surfaces are likely dry, but persistent high humidity (~79% average), NW aspect, and high altitude mean internal moisture could linger. Conditions are promising but need on-site verification before committing to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 430m, Simonside is frequently in cloud or mist even on otherwise dry days, and surface moisture from mist can keep the rock damp without any recorded rainfall.
- The NW aspect receives virtually no direct sun, so drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature — the recent light easterly winds would not have driven air directly across the NW-facing rock surfaces as effectively as westerlies.
- The April 12 condition report noted wind-exposed and south-facing problems drying well, but 'many problems looked ok' implies some were not — and that was after a similar dry spell, suggesting sheltered or recessed features hold moisture stubbornly at this crag.
- Cumulative April rainfall of ~40mm into porous sandstone at high altitude means the rock mass has been repeatedly re-wetted through the month, and deep internal moisture may persist despite the recent 3-day dry window.
Warnings
2
- Rain is forecast from May 2 onwards (including 3.4mm on May 3 with 94% humidity), which will reset drying progress and likely render the crag unsafe for several days.
- At 430m with NW aspect, cloud and mist can arrive quickly even on forecast-dry days — be prepared to abandon plans if visibility drops or rock becomes damp.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 0.3mm on April 28 with trace amounts, giving roughly 3 full dry days, but the preceding weeks saw frequent wetting events totalling ~40mm, keeping the rock mass periodically saturated through April.
Moderate winds (12–21 km/h) from E/SW over the dry period would provide some drying on exposed faces, though easterly winds are less effective on the NW aspect; today's 21°C warmth and 71% humidity are the best drying conditions in weeks but represent only one day.
With average humidity at 79% and only 3 dry days after a wet April, internal moisture levels in this high-porosity sandstone could still be elevated, posing a risk of hold breakage particularly on sheltered or lower sections.
Early May is at the very start of Simonside's usable season; overnight frost risk persists (min -0.3°C on April 29) and while freeze-thaw cycles are waning, the combination of residual moisture and near-zero minima still poses some concern.
Contributing Factors
8
No significant rain since April 28 (0.3mm), with today marking the third fully dry day — approaching the minimum community guideline of two dry days.
Today's maximum of 21.4°C is the warmest day in weeks and will significantly boost evaporation rates from exposed surfaces.
Average humidity over the past week has been ~79%, substantially slowing evaporative drying even during otherwise dry days.
The NW-facing aspect receives minimal direct solar radiation, meaning drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient warmth rather than radiant heating.
At 430m, the crag is frequently in cloud or mist which deposits surface moisture even without recorded rainfall, potentially negating dry-day counts.
The exposed ridge position means wind has been the primary drying agent, and moderate winds (12–21 km/h) over recent days will have stripped moisture from exposed surfaces.
Nearly 40mm of rain fell across April with frequent wetting events, meaning the sandstone has been repeatedly re-saturated and deep moisture may persist.
Several recent dry days had easterly winds, which blow onto the sheltered (lee) side of a NW-facing crag, reducing direct airflow over the climbing surfaces.
Recommendations
3
- Visit today (May 1) if possible — the warm, relatively dry conditions are the best window before rain returns tomorrow; focus on wind-exposed and upper-tier problems first.
- Perform a thorough touch-test on holds before committing: if pressing a palm to the rock leaves any darkening or cool-damp sensation, the rock is still too wet to climb safely.
- Check the ground at the crag base — if soil and vegetation are damp or the rock base is dark, assume internal moisture remains and do not climb.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
9 days ago
The rock has had a relatively dry spell since the last meaningful rain on April 21 (0.8mm), with only a trace of 0.3mm on April 28 and 0.1mm on April 26, but persistently high humidity (averaging 80%), NW aspect with minimal sun, frequent cloud cover, and light winds have severely limited drying. Conditions may be acceptable on wind-exposed faces but a careful on-site assessment is essential before climbing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Simonside's summit ridge at 430m is frequently in cloud — the hourly data from April 28 shows 100% cloud cover through much of the day with humidity above 90% overnight, meaning mist contact likely kept surfaces damp even without recorded rainfall.
- The NW aspect means virtually no direct sun reaches the main faces, so drying relies almost entirely on wind evaporation — easterly winds today offer no direct benefit to NW-facing rock.
- The condition report from April 12 noted wind-exposed and south-facing problems were dry even during a wetter period, suggesting the most exposed arêtes and upper sections may be climbable while sheltered bays and lower sections remain damp.
- April is early in the season for this high-altitude venue; the crag is primarily a May–September destination and cumulative winter/spring moisture loading from 41mm over the past 28 days will slow internal drying significantly.
Warnings
2
- Surface-dry appearance is unreliable at Simonside — high-porosity Fell Sandstone can appear dry while remaining saturated internally, risking hold breakage and permanent route damage.
- Cloud immersion at 430m can wet the rock rapidly even on forecast-dry days; conditions can deteriorate without warning during your session.
Reasoning
Despite only 0.4mm of rain in the last 7 days, persistent humidity averaging 80%, overnight values above 90%, and frequent cloud immersion at 430m altitude mean the rock surface has had little opportunity to fully dry, and internal moisture from heavier rain on April 15–18 (15.7mm over 4 days) may still be present.
The NW aspect receives negligible direct sun, and while the site is exposed, recent winds have been light to moderate (10–16 km/h) and predominantly from the east — blowing onto the NW face rather than drawing moisture away — limiting effective drying over the past week.
With 41mm of rain over the past 28 days and limited drying conditions at altitude, internal moisture levels in this porous Fell Sandstone could still be elevated, posing a risk of hold breakage and grain loosening particularly on less-exposed sections.
Late April is at the very start of Simonside's usable season; overnight temperatures dropping below 0°C on several recent nights (-0.1°C on April 23, -1.7°C on April 24, 0.1°C today) introduce minor freeze-thaw concerns if any internal moisture remains.
Contributing Factors
8
Only 0.4mm in the last 7 days, with the last significant rain being 0.8mm on April 21, giving approximately 8 days of near-dry weather.
Average humidity of 80% over the last 7 days, with overnight values regularly exceeding 90%, severely limits evaporative drying at the rock surface.
Hourly data shows near-100% cloud cover through much of April 28, and at 430m the crag is frequently enveloped in mist which deposits surface moisture even without recorded rain.
The NW-facing rock receives virtually no direct solar radiation, eliminating the most effective drying mechanism and leaving wind as the sole driver.
The exposed summit position benefits from any wind, and moderate breezes (15–20 km/h) over recent days will have aided surface drying on fully exposed features.
Today's easterly wind blows directly onto the NW-facing crag rather than across or away from it, reducing effective surface drying compared to westerly or southwesterly winds.
41.3mm over 28 days represents significant cumulative wetting for porous Fell Sandstone, and internal moisture may persist well beyond surface drying.
Several recent overnight lows near or below 0°C (including -1.7°C on April 24 and 0.1°C today) could cause minor freeze-thaw cycling if internal moisture levels remain above the critical 60% saturation threshold.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, only climb on the most wind-exposed arêtes and upper sections — perform a thorough touch test and check that the ground at the crag base is completely dry before committing.
- Avoid any sheltered bays, lower sections, or features that appear dark or discoloured — these are likely still holding internal moisture despite surface appearances.
- Consider waiting for the warmer, drier forecast days around May 1–2 when temperatures reach 15–19°C and humidity drops, which should provide significantly better drying conditions.
Climbing Outlook